On the final day of one of the most miserable seasons in recent memory, Oli Marmol made a bold declaration.
“If we’re not competing for a championship next year, we’ve made a mistake,” the manager said. “This isn’t, ‘Take two to three years to see where we’re at.’ It’s next year.”
Major League Baseball’s regular season ended more than two weeks ago, and while the postseason has provided no shortage of storylines, the St. Louis Cardinals remain noticeably quiet. The organization had tentatively set its annual end-of-year news conference for last week, but reversed course and postponed the conference to an undetermined date, likely after the World Series. The team did not have any immediate news to announce and felt it best to follow up after the postseason.
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Marmol, at least, sounded ready back on Oct. 2.
“I look forward to this offseason,” Marmol said. “It’ll be important and we can’t mess it up.”
The decision to postpone the press conference is relatively rare and certainly frustrating from a fan-base standpoint — especially after the Cardinals’ first 90-plus loss season since 1990. Most teams have already conducted an end-of-year presser (except those still participating in the postseason, of course). However, postponing a conference to later in the offseason, or electing not to hold one altogether, happens occasionally. The White Sox did not have an end-of-year news conference, though ownership did overturn the front office in September, and newly hired general manager Chris Getz and his staff addressed the media before the end of the season. The Yankees have not yet announced if they would hold an end-of-year media session.
The fans' trust in the front office is fractured and there's warranted skepticism in believing if the Cardinals can actually fix the mess they've made.
The prep for 2024 starts today. And Oli Marmol knows they can't mess it up. #STLCards https://t.co/USLPazsQfN
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) October 2, 2023
Soon, there will be much to talk about. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has significant decisions to make before his most important offseason in years. MLB’s first scheduled offseason event, the general manager’s meetings, is scheduled for Nov. 7-9 in Scottsdale, Ariz. Though no major roster decisions are usually made at the GM meetings, they serve as the first opportunity for all 30 organizations to meet in person and network for the upcoming winter. The Cardinals are expected to be one of the most active teams in the offseason, but in order for them to get started, Mozeliak will need to spend the next couple of weeks finalizing his blueprint for the next four months.
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What does that blueprint look like? We’re glad you asked.
Step 1: Finalize next year’s major-league coaching staff
Mozeliak confirmed in September that Marmol would return to manage the Cardinals in 2024, the final year of Marmol’s three-year contract. However, he indicated other changes could be made.
The Cardinals have had conversations with Yadier Molina about joining the major-league coaching staff next season and both parties expressed interest, according to multiple league sources. It’s unclear what role Molina would have, but if he does join the staff it’s believed he will have an everyday position. Molina, who retired in 2022 after 19 seasons with the Cardinals, had previously expressed a desire to be a major-league manager. He had his first taste of managing this spring when he managed Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.
Bringing Molina onto the staff would provide major-league player experience, a trait that most of last year’s staff lacked. Molina would surely boost the pitching staff and would also (presumably) work extensively with Willson Contreras behind the plate. He would also serve as an enticing reason for free-agent starting pitchers to consider signing with St. Louis.
It does not appear the Cardinals will part ways with first-year hitting coach Turner Ward or first-year pitching coach Dusty Blake, but the organization could look to restructure the staff and assign coaches to different roles next year. St. Louis could also add positions to their staff, joining the long list of teams that employ a coaching staff in double digits. Even throughout the struggles of the 2023 season, the players backed the coaching staff, including Marmol. One of the biggest player concerns, according to sources, was that there simply wasn’t enough coaching to go around. The Cardinals finished the year with 10 coaches (not including Marmol), making them one of the smallest staffs in the majors.
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With Mozeliak set on Marmol to lead the team next year, it’s imperative that he set his manager up for success with the right coaches. Mozeliak and Marmol usually work in tandem when it comes to these decisions, and given Marmol’s pointed comments about the importance of the offseason, it makes sense why finalizing the coaching staff is a top priority.
Step 2: Identify their preferred free-agent targets
Well, we certainly know the organization’s top item this winter.
The Cardinals will look to add three pitchers to the rotation, along with bolstering the bullpen. It’s a tall order, especially for an organization whose largest free-agent contract came as a seven-year, $120 million signing of Matt Holliday in 2010.
However, after suffering their first losing season since 2007, ownership is committed to spending this offseason. They pledged this despite a down year in revenue and amid financial uncertainty with their regional sports network, Bally Sports Midwest. In an interview with the St. Louis Business Journal, president Bill DeWitt III said the Cardinals plan to be “aggressive” in ensuring this season was a “one-time blip.” The Cardinals’ 71-91 finish was the worst in the DeWitt family’s tenure as owners.
“We do believe when we’re looking toward 2024, we’re trying to compete,” DeWitt said.
That statement will likely be met with justified skepticism from the fan base. But if the Cardinals are serious about avoiding a rebuild and ensuring their dismal season was a one-time occurrence, ownership will need to spend an unprecedented amount.
If the Cardinals are open to spending, who will they target? St. Louis plans to pursue Sonny Gray, according to multiple sources. Gray is on the record saying he’d be open to a reunion with the Minnesota Twins, but that money will not be the biggest factor in his free-agency decision.
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“We want to go to a place where you feel wanted,” said Gray. “I don’t know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent, but I’ll say it because it’s honest. Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately. … There are a lot of factors that go into those decisions.”
Gray, who will be entering his age-34 season next year, made 32 starts in an All-Star season with a 2.79 ERA and a 5.3 bWAR, registering 183 strikeouts in 184 innings. He and Aaron Nola (who the Cardinals will also target) are believed to be two of the top starting pitchers on the free-agent market, alongside Blake Snell, the likely National League Cy Young award winner. The Cardinals will also check in on Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whom they have scouted overseas. Yamamoto, a 25-year-old right-hander, is a star in Nippon Professional Baseball and is widely considered to be the most coveted pitcher this offseason. After dazzling for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic, Yamamoto recorded a 1.21 ERA over 164 innings for the Orix Buffaloes this year with 1.5 walks per nine innings a 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
St. Louis remains open to a reunion with Jordan Montgomery, though he’s certain to earn a major payday considering his second-half performance for the Texas Rangers. The Cardinals could also explore a reunion with Jordan Hicks. The sides were close to signing a multi-year extension in July but when talks fell through, St. Louis traded the right-hander to the Toronto Blue Jays.
The free-agent market won’t be complete until mid-November. Players set for free agency won’t become eligible until five days after the World Series. First-time free agents have until Nov. 14 to accept a qualifying offer and teams have until Nov. 17 to offer 2024 contracts to unsigned or arbitration-eligible players on their 40-man rosters (otherwise known as the non-tender deadline).
Once the market is set, expect the Cardinals to hit the ground running. This year’s Winter Meetings will take place Dec. 3-6 in Nashville.
Step 3: Confirm which players they’re open to trading
The Cardinals will almost surely need to negotiate trades this winter, especially if they hope to acquire young, controllable pitching talent. The organization has the depth to pull off such a trade. It’s just a matter of who they’d be willing to part with.
St. Louis is high on its core, believing the Cardinals’ group of position players will be instrumental to a successful club next year. There is a hesitance to part with a majority of their talent for that reason. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras all have full no-trade clauses. It’s believed the Cardinals will not entertain trade offers for promising youngsters Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn, either. Similar to last season, the Cardinals don’t seem to be willing to part with Lars Nootbaar. Brendan Donovan is on that list as well.
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Everyone else may be fair game, though the organization can certainly make an argument against trading players such as Tommy Edman or Nolan Gorman. Still, trading for talent requires giving up talent, and St. Louis is not in the position to be picky.
Dylan Carlson is a likely trade chip this winter, and perhaps Alec Burleson as well, though the Cardinals like Burleson’s bat-to-ball skills from the left side. Tyler O’Neill’s perceived trade value has never been lower, but if there’s a suitor for the oft-injured outfielder, St. Louis will jump on it. There are also decisions to be made about players like Juan Yepez and Luken Baker, who are bat-first players facing significant blocks at the big-league level.
The Cardinals likely won’t solve their pitching woes solely by trades or free-agent signings. Likely, both will be required to revamp the pitching. But there’s no denying how critical it is that Mozeliak and the rest of the front office get it right. The Cardinals’ silence might be unnerving, but it surely won’t last for much longer.
(Photo of John Mozeliak: Jeff Curry / USA Today)
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